The demographic transition model

Stage 1 - High fluctuating 

• High birth rate and high death rate 
• This is due to little medicine causing a low life expectancy and no means of birth control

Example: In parts of Indonesia, Brazil and Ecuador, small numbers of people live separately with little contact with the outside world. 

Stage 2 - Early Expanding 

• Birth rate remains high
• Death rate decreases 
• This is due to improvements in medicine and hygiene, so life expectancy increases. Children are needed to work the land - this keeps birth rates high. 

Example: Afghanistan is an extremely poor country held back by political instability. It has one of the world's highest birth rates at 37.8 but a much lower death rate of 17.4. Therefore the population grows by 2.04% per year. The country needs children to help with crops and livestock as 79% of people are farmers. The capital city, Kabul, has even higher rates of natural increase because easier access to medical care reduce death rates. 

Stage 3 - Late expanding 

• Birth rate drops rapidly 
• Death rate continues to decrease but more slowly
• This is due to the availability of birth control and economic changes. People benefit from having smaller families. Children cost the family rather than earning money. 

Example: Brazil is a newly industrialising country and is developing fast economically. Between 1975 and 2015 Brazil's population has almost doubled from 108 million to 210 million people. As a roman catholic country, it has a high birth rate. However, by rapidly improving standards of living people can see the benefits of having fewer children. 

Stage 4 - Low fluctuating 

• Low birth rate and low death rate
• This is due to economic situation - when the economy is growing and people earn a good living they are more likely to have children. In times of unemployment and low wages people postpone having children. 

Example: The USA is the largest and most developed economy in the world. The world's third largest population with over 313 million people in 2011, its growth is quite high for a stage 4 country. However, the main reason for this is immigration. The USA is now encouraging a more highly trained asian workforce who are likely to have lower birth rates. 

Stage 5 - Natural decrease

• Birth rate very low and goes beneath death rate
• Death rate increases slightly because of an ageing population 
• This is because the population includes more elderly people. Emancipation and status of women - economies give young women career opportunities and they decide to be childless or postpone childbirth. 

Example: Germany is almost as well developed as the USA, but is a stage further in the demographic transition model. The main factors that have brought Germany to this stage include women achieving high powered positions at work and an ageing population. Germany's birth rate is well below replacement rate. The government not only has to cope with the costs of a large elderly population, but also a declining work force.